Théâtre d’ombres chinoises et de tensions ukrainiennes
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Théâtre d’ombres chinoises et de tensions ukrainiennes

Théâtre d’ombres chinoises et de tensions ukrainiennes :

Les perspectives demeurent favorables pour la croissance mondiale en 2014. Celle-ci devrait même se renforcer, graduellement, par rapport à 2013 pour afficher un taux d’environ 3,5%. 
Elle continuera de profiter de taux d’intérêt bas, de l’allègement des mesures d’austérité dans les pays développés et d’une moindre aversion au crédit.
Or la reprise globale reste fragile et, à court terme, l’environnement n’est pas optimal. 
La Chine suscite quelques interrogations, pour ne pas dire inquiétudes, et les tensions géopolitiques en Ukraine sont à prendre au sérieux. Certains pays, comme l’Allemagne, sont très exposés au marché ukrainien.

Zone euro: bonne direction : 
Selon les nations ou les régions, on contemple un panorama varié. Aux Etats-Unis, le rigoureux hiver va probablement faire place, ces prochains mois, à un regain de vigueur qui devrait se solder par une croissance de l’ordre de 2,7% sur l’année. 
Le pays surfera notamment sur un marché de l’emploi solide, incitant les ménages à dépenser et les entreprises à investir davantage. 
En outre, la politique budgétaire s’annonce moins stricte, puisque le déficit public a passablement reflué.La zone euro peut espérer une croissance du PIB de 1 à 1,2% environ. 
Voilà qui est mieux, mais ceci ne suffira pas à soigner les deux grands maux dont souffre actuellement le Vieux Continent: chômage et pressions déflationnistes. Sans compter que l’endettement continue d’augmenter dans bien des pays, dont la France, appelant à de plus grands remèdes. 
Cela pourrait inciter la BCE à intervenir.

Nulle euphorie dans le monde émergent où la croissance, bridée par des taux d’intérêt à la hausse afin d’enrayer l’inflation et la dépréciation des monnaies, devrait tout de même avoisiner 4,6% en 2014, comme l’an dernier.
 En Chine, le grand défi consistera à maîtriser le ralentissement de l’économie (croissance de 7,0% à 7,5% en 2014), qui découlera du resserrement du crédit et du frein aux investissements imposés par l’Etat. 
Pour ce dernier, la priorité est l’augmentation de la consommation intérieure.

Avec une croissance attendue à près de 2,4% en 2014, la Suisse restera parmi les premiers de classe cette année grâce, entre autres, à sa compétitivité dans de nombreux secteurs. 

Le rythme modéré de l’activité en début d’année devrait s’accélérer au second semestre, profitant notamment du commerce international.

La Fed à petits pas : Sur le front des taux, la Réserve fédérale (Fed) continue de poser les jalons sur le chemin de sortie de son programme d’accommodation monétaire. 
A la cadence actuelle, celui-ci devrait être achevé cet automne. 
En revanche, la Fed ne relèvera pas ses taux directeurs dans la foulée; le premier mouvement devrait intervenir au printemps 2015. 
Appliquant le principe du «wait and see», les principales banques centrales occidentales ne bougeront pas avant.

Banque Cantonale Vaudoise : Votre banque en Suisse


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