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Contexte économique global

Manque de visibilité  Ralentissement de l'économie chinoise, report du relèvement des taux américains, scandale dans l'industrie automobile. Les obstacles se sont succédés sur la route déjà cahoteuse des marchés, laissant des traces bien pentues sur les courbes des indices boursiers. La volatilité était annoncée. Elle s'est installée avec son inégalable pouvoir d'érosion sur le moral des investisseurs.

Alors, malgré une reprise qui prend forme en Europe et des consommateurs américains toujours entreprenants, les doutes s'insinuent dans les esprits. Doit-on craindre l'éclatement d'une nouvelle crise majeure? Les principaux indicateurs ne montrent pas la voie d'un tel scénario même si le niveau de risque est passé de faible à modéré. Reste que la visibilité manque. Et que la croissance est appelée à demeurer molle.

Pilotes de la relance, les politiques monétaires peuvent-elles encore servir d'accélérateur? A la notable exception de la Réserve fédérale américaine, les Banques centrales devraient poursuivre leur conduite accommodante. Car les pressions déflationnistes persistent et les problèmes de certains pays émergents, de cycliques sont devenus structurels. Le marché a besoin de temps pour absorber cette nouvelle donne, ce qui freine d'autant les effets de l'importante activité des Banques centrales.

Dès lors, si elle manque de dynamisme pour accélérer, la croissance ne risque guère d'être stoppée sur cette route qui se prolonge. D'où l'intérêt pour les investisseurs d'allonger leur horizon temps d'investissement, de s'armer de patience et de doigté. Notamment sur les marchés actions où une attitude constructive s'impose.

Gérard Haeberli
Directeur général de la Division Private Banking de la Banque Cantonale Vaudoise 

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