les actions en 2016
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les actions en 2016

2016: les actions oui, mais en maîtrisant le risque

Actions au bénéfice d’un environnement constructif…

En 2016, les marchés boursiers devraient bénéficier sur la distance d’un environnement plutôt porteur. Tant que la reprise mondiale se poursuit, même modérément, les liquidités générées par les politiques de relance des Banques centrales devraient surtout profiter aux actions, toujours plus attrayantes que les obligations, plombées, elles, par des rendements extrêmement bas.…mais pas euphorique.

Toutefois, l’appréciation des indices s’annonce graduelle et irrégulière. En effet, les incertitudes sur la conjoncture dans les pays émergents et la progression très moyenne des bénéfices des sociétés pénalisées par les pressions déflationnistes devraient modérer leur potentiel haussier et entraîner périodiquement des phases de consolidation des cours plus ou moins marquées.

Privilégier les actions par rapport aux placements à revenu fixe, mais en contenant le risque.
Même modéré – en dessous d’une progression à deux chiffres – et même empreint d’une certaine volatilité, le potentiel des actions s’annonce assez attrayant, surtout par rapport à celui des obligations qui est pénalisé par une rémunération faible, voire parfois négative.

Cependant, il s’agit de privilégier les actions en faisant preuve de prudence et de discipline. En effet, il conviendra de ne pas succomber à la tendance, mais de profiter des corrections pour accroître l’exposition, ou de savoir la réduire en cas de hausse importante.

L’interprétation des indicateurs économiques (croissance/prix) sera clé, car elle aura, à notre avis, un impact plus important que la direction des taux d’intérêt.
  • Où trouver les meilleures opportunités?
         Les marchés européens, 
  • où le potentiel de rebond des bénéfices est supérieur à la moyenne, 
         et les bourses asiatiques, à l’évaluation plus attrayante, devraient          offrir les meilleures opportunités.

  •  Mais il ne faut pas négliger un socle de valeurs de qualité en Suisse et aux Etats-Unis.
  • Des risques à surveiller Les risques se situent clairement du côté de l’affaiblissement conjoncturel. La croissance chinoise et les pressions déflationnistes seront notamment à surveiller ces prochains mois. 
  • Une nouvelle flambée du dollar aurait aussi des conséquences néfastes sur les pays émergents (tensions monétaires), voire sur la conjoncture américaine. 

80 commentaires pour les actions en 2016:

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